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Título del libro: International Conference On The Physics Of Reactors 2010, Physor 2010
Título del capítulo: Multi criteria analysis for the long term planning of the Mexican electrical system expansion

Autores UNAM:
CECILIA MARTIN DEL CAMPO MARQUEZ; JUAN LUIS FRANCOIS LACOUTURE;

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Autores externos:

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Idioma:

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Año de publicación:
2010

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Palabras clave:

Electricity generating systems; Expansion planning; Multi-criteria decision and fuzzy logic

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Resumen:

A multi-criteria analysis was applied to the long term electricity expansion planning for Mexico for the 2008-2030 period. This methodology is based on a fuzzy logic inference system, which allows for the definition of a decision function that takes into account all the evaluation parameters. This function permits one to rank the alternative expansion plans in order to determine the most attractive option. In this study four evaluation parameters were considered: (a) the total generating cost obtained from an optimization expansion using the WASP-IV model, (b) the economic risk associated with fuel prices increases, (c) the diversity of technologies in the mix, and (d) the external costs. The analysis was applied to a base case and to three additional expansion cases, which are very similar to the base case, but each of them excludes the addition of a certain type of candidate technology in the optimization planning. The base case is Plan A which has six candidate technologies available for the optimization planning. Plan B excludes coal; Plan C excludes oil, and Plan D excludes nuclear energy. After the decision analysis was made it was found that Plan B is best followed by Plan A, then Plan C and finally Plan D. The worst plan expansion was obtained when the nuclear candidate was excluded in the program of additions during the time period. The primary conclusion is that nuclear energy must participate in the mix of electricity generation. This result can be used to define the energy policy for electricity production in Mexico in the medium-long term scenario.

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Entidades citadas de la UNAM:

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Fuente:


ISBN:
9781617820014
Editorial:
American Nuclear Society

Tipo de producto:
Conference Paper