Título del libro: Mathematical Modeling, Simulations, And Ai For Emergent Pandemic Diseases: Lessons Learned From Covid-19
Título del capítulo: Pandemic response: Isolationism or solidarity?: An evolutionary perspective
JORGE XICOTENCATL VELASCO HERNANDEZ;
Autores externos:
Idioma:
Año de publicación:
2023
Palabras clave:
Evolutionary epidemiology; Spatially heterogeneous populations; Vaccine escape
Resumen:
Health officials have stressed the importance of a more uniform distribution of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines within and among countries, yet there has been little critical assessment of the underlying reasons for this admonition. Here, we explicitly show why vaccine equity is critical to controlling the pandemic. Perhaps counter intuitively, we find that vaccine escape mutants are less likely to come from highly vaccinated regions, where there is strong selection pressure favoring vaccine escape and more likely to come from neighboring unvaccinated regions where there is no vaccine-induced selection pressure favoring escape. Unvaccinated geographic regions thus provide evolutionary reservoirs from which new strains can arise and cause new epidemics within neighboring vaccinated regions and beyond. Our findings have concrete implications for vaccine distribution strategies and global public health policy. For example, one way a highly vaccinated country can quell its local epidemic is by tightening borders and imposing travel restrictions; our findings, however, indicate that border porosity must be unrealistically close to zero for this strategy to work. Increasing vaccine equity, our findings indicate, should be by far the cheaper and more effective strategy. © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Entidades citadas de la UNAM:
ISBN:
9780323950640
Editorial:
Elsevier Nombre de la publicación:
Pandemic response: Isolationism or solidarity?: An evolutionary perspective
Página inicial:
93
Página final:
108
